Mesa County and Third Congressional District Registration:
Is there a possibility for a primary day upset?
As 2022 takes shape, each look into the Colorado Secretary of State’s voter registration database reveals an eye-opener. Comparing June 1, 2022, with the previous twelve months, Mesa County Democrats lost fourteen percent of their registered voters and Republicans lost five percent. To say this is unusual heading into an election year is an understatement.
Reviewing the data on a YTD basis is even more astonishing: What is happening in Mesa County – the home of one out of every four Republican voters in Colorado’s Third Congressional District – is unlike anything seen in the previous decade during an election year.
What follows are four slides that show why Colorado’s Third Congressional District could see an upset and the hold of political extremists be successfully challenged.
Despite these changes taking place, current Republican leadership in the County is still favored. They have plenty of Republican money to fund a strong ground game. In the Third Congressional District race they have the power of incumbency. And they have an organized and highly motivated base.
However, if the first five months are a sign, there is a real chance that Republicans are in for a surprise at the ballot box in the June primary.
Note: Because of the splitting of Eagle County in 2022, their data have been excluded from this report. So far, the Secretary of State’s office has not published historical data based on the new Eagle County boundaries.